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stame.reilly in
Stame Reilly on
11 6th, 2009 |
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I was interested to read Sherrington’s piece on Game Theory, in fact it was hard to tear my self away from it and go back to reading the telephone directory. This is exactly the kind of management bollocks I keep warning you about. No surprise it was written up in the HBR along with all the other guru-babble management techniques all those Brookes Brother clones read before they go back to deciding things the way they always do – what would my boss like, what will make me look good, what is least risky to my career? Here’s my version of Game theory.
Imagine you are asked to give your view on an investment decision, any investment decision. Imagine for one glorious moment anyone gives a shit what you think. If you say yes and it turns out to be a great success how many marks out of 10 will you personally get? You cannot be dumb enough to think it will be 10 out of 10, success has many fathers (or mothers, jeez I hate this PC stuff). Maybe you will get 7 if you are lucky. Now imagine you said no, and it nevertheless went ahead to be a winner. Will you get zero? No, because you can always claim circumstances had changed, you can even argue you were merely trying to play Devil’s advocate. Maybe you score 3 out of 10. What if you voted ‘no’ and it turned out you were on the money, the thing flops and you get to play a very major ‘I told you so card’? Organizations respect that kind of mature judgment, you would probably score a 9. And if you said yes and it flopped – well, organizations do not like people who back losers. You can try to spread the blame – “I wasn’t the only one who voted ‘yes’, even my boss thought it was a great idea, the guy you fired last week” – but it doesn’t play well. You will get close to zero.
So using this game theory, add up the scores for saying no – it totals 12. Now add up the scores for saying yes – 7 maybe 8 if you are lucky (are you following this – just write it up in a little matrix, if you can’t do that then it’s unlikely you would be asked to vote on anything more important than where to have the Christmas Party). If you play the odds it is always better to say NO! And that is exactly how it works in big organizations, who tell you “It’s OK to make mistakes” but always forget to add “in theory”.
Rely on good old Stame to tell you it like it is.
Up yours